In the first quarter, domestic styrene prices soared and plummeted. The trough was 6,300 yuan (ton price, the same below) at the beginning of the year, and the peak was 10,100 yuan in early March. Specifically, after the diving market at the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the styrene market began to recover and rebound. Since mid-February, the main equipment in Europe, America and the Middle East has been shut down unplanned, and the prices of external disks have soared one after another. Global supply shortages have supported the rise in China's export volume and prices. The domestic market has taken advantage of the trend and has continued to rise. At the end of February, the East China spot market prices have broken through. An integer mark of ten thousand yuan. Due to continued negative feedback from downstream resistance to high-priced raw materials, the price of styrene fell sharply again in March, and the spot price in East China approached 8,000 yuan in mid-to-late.

Specifically, in the first quarter, domestic styrene showed the following three characteristics:

One is the increase in production capacity. In the first quarter, in addition to the expansion of some old styrene plants, there were also three new plants with a total capacity of 1.5 million tons per year, and the total domestic production capacity exceeded 13.6 million tons. Due to the relatively stable overall start-up in the first quarter, new breakthroughs were made in production. According to statistics from Jinlianchuang, my country's total styrene output reached 2.8 million tons in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 38%.

Second, international prices dominate domestic prices. Due to the long-standing supply gap in my country, the styrene Asian dollar market and China's domestic market have always influenced and restricted each other. In the first quarter, many major devices in Europe, the United States and the Middle East reduced and stopped production, which led to the continuous highs in the international market. At the same time, it also strongly drove the domestic market to witness a continuous surge in the 2 to 3 weeks after the Spring Festival. At the same time, the foreign market was upside down. Intensified further. Some analysis shows that during this period, my country not only lost about 500,000 tons of imports due to sudden international overhauls, but also experienced a rare export boom in previous years. The total export volume is expected to be no less than 150,000 tons.

Third, inventory remained low during the same period. The first quarter belongs to the traditional storage period. However, since the end of last year, the international styrene main equipment has been frequently reduced and stopped production, which has caused my country's import volume to remain at a low level in the past six months. The highest point of East China main port inventory in the first quarter appeared on March 10, reaching 177,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 45%. Later, under the influence of a sharp increase in export volume, it quickly dropped to 111,500 tons at the end of March, a year-on-year decrease of 65%.

In the second quarter, the downstream and terminal are expected to recover and increase, while the import volume will remain low. In April, the domestic production capacity involved in overhauls was nearly 1.7 million tons, and some shipments were still exported. Styrene maintained a tightly balanced structure, which still supported the short-term price center of gravity. However, as the US, Middle East, and European installations have restarted, the Asian installations entered the final stage of overhaul in May. Obviously, styrene stocks in East China may enter a new round of accumulation cycle starting in May, which may restrict market conditions.

Article information source-National Petroleum and Chemical Network



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